The success yesterday of the ‘Tea Party’ in nominating Christine O’Donnell over nine-time U. S. Rep. Mike Castel in the Republican U. S. Senate primary in Delaware and Carl Paladino defeating Rick Lazio in the Republican gubernatorial primary in New York raises the question of whether the Republican Party may split for a period of time into two competing factions.
Furthermore, a mirror development might occur with the Democrats if President Obama is defeated in 2012 and the left wing of the Democrat Party splits off in frustration, claiming that Obama’s more conservative stances on health care and Afghanistan do not reflect the needs of the nation. (Such a division could conceivably take before 2012, contributing to Obama’s defeat for re-election, especially if the health care reforms are aborted and war continues in Afghanistan.)
In 1992, Ross Perot, representing the Independence Party, drew 19% of the national vote and is considered responsible for the defeat of President George H. W. bush and the election of Bill Clinton. So we do not need to go back far in history to recall one of the episodic temporary division or re-alignments. (Some consider Ralph Nader’s third party run in 2000 as being a factor for George W. Bush becoming president.)
History suggests the over time consolidation will take place with the three or four parties combining back into a two party system.
But for the short run, hold onto your seats. We may be in a for a rough ride ahead.
