In a Letter to the Editor entitled “How would the U. S. react to a Russian sponsor coup in Canada?,” the contributor sets forth legitimate Russian concerns about NATO’s long term aggressively building influence and often alliances along Russian borders.
If these were the only consideration, there would be good reason for a tacit arrangement whereby the Ukraine and other border nations would be ‘neutralizd’ as was done with Austria after the Second World War. This might still permit the buffer states to enter the EU, but not NATO.
But rational circumstances alone do not necessarily adequately describe what is taking place and future likelihoods. The character and aspirations of leaders and their backers can be pivotal. So it is important that we properly understand Vladimir Putin and his oligarch cohorts.
Below are excerpts from Karen Dawisha’s recently published “Putin’s Kleptocracy; Who Owns Russia?”, a thoroughly academic work that has received positive critical reviews. [ ] are clarifications by NewsLanc’s editor.
“…In the critical year [1988] between the August banking crisis and the appointment of Putin as prime minister a year later, Yel’tsin had to defeat his opponents despite the fact that his ratings in the public opinion polls had virtually collapsed. As such, politics left the pubic sphere and went into the backrooms. In this behind-the-scenes struggle, Putin would be invaluable.”
“Putin could have been under no illusions that if [rival party] OVR won [the Dumas election that preceded the presidential contest], their plan had to include putting him in jail, along with member of [Yel’tsin’s] Family [which included many of the oligarchs.] Primakov [who represented the liberal opposition] had already called for ‘freeing places in the prisons and camps for those we will be sending there.’”
“Concerned about the imminent collapse of Yel’tsin’s physical and psychological well-being, which would force his resignation, the Family pushed to shape a team that would be completely reliable … this team included Putin as acting president…”
“…a strategy to provide Prime Minister Putin with a platform that would focus the country on a strong response to the resurgence of Chechen terrorism and bombings, in which Putin would calm the people, prevent panic after a horrible wave of bombings, and become the actual and symbolic vehicle for the nation’s demand for a strong and vengeful state response.”
“Between August 31 and September 16, five bombs exploded… The apartment bombings had the effect of creating panic in the country as a whole, but in Mosow in particular, Luzhkov’s ability to display his control of events was undermined…
“The bombing campaign came to a halt only when an FSB [Russian FBI / CIA] team that had evidently been involved in planting a bomb in the city of Ryazan was apprehended by local authorities.”
“Altogether 301 were killed and almost two thousand injured.”
“Russian journalists investigating the Ryazan bombing quickly came to the conclusion that all the bombings may have been inspired by the government to deepen the anti-Chechen mood in the country as a prelude to launching a wider war in Chechnya, over which electoral politics and the need to boost Putin’s image was paramount.”
Moreover, there is evidence that an arrangement was made with a Chechnya regional leader for a short lived invasion of a bordering Russian town even prior to the Putin’s government bombing of apartment houses to spread terror to the electorate.
In summary, Putin’s government paid for a provocative minor invasion from Chechnya and then carried out a string of bombing of apartment buildings in Russian cities to divert the attention of the electorate from corruption and economic problems to a mock Chechnya enemy.
Putin will not be controlled by promises. Even by treaties. To continue in office, especially in the face of falling oil prices and sanctions, Putin smust stir up border tensions to maintain popular electoral support at home.
If you look Vladimir Putin in the eye, what you see is a Hitler, a Stalin, a Mao. We need to stop him where he stands.
So we respectfully differ with the letter writer, not because his analysis lacks much validity in general, but because it does not take into consideration the ruthlessness and evil of Putin and his oligarch backers.
I completely agree with your opinion.
I understand though the position of Angela Merkel. who is against US sending weapons to Ukraine. She knows Putin better then anybody else and she believes that being cornered he wouldn’t want to loose his power, that would mean loosing his life.
He’ll prefer to blow the entire world with the nuclear war.
What I find missing in your article is the enabling role played by Obama, Merkel, Hollande and much of the European Union.
Absent sanctions that truly hurt the ailing Russian economy, absent the painful sacrifice of the exodus of Western business
from Russia, crippling the economy further, absent the greater cost for Putin in facing a Ukrainian army equipped with lethal
defensive weapons, Putin can do whatever he wishes in Ukraine and getting away with it.
Unless the West awakens from its pacific slumber and the illusion that Putin might honor ceasefires and agreements, more
aggression will follow. The Latvians, Lithuanians, and Estonians have already said so and expect the worst. Even NATO
membership is not going to save them, if the West is not going to act much more forcefully now.
Time is running out fast!
How many more sacrificial lambs will the West throw at the Russian Bear?