By Slava Tsukerman
Do sensational results of polls really reflect the mood of the respondents?
During the past several years, the Social Opinion Fund has been posing weekly questions such as: For whom they would vote if the presidential election would take place next Sunday?
Respondents were asked whether they trust the head of state and they also were asked to evaluate the performance of the president.
Last week Russians gave Putin the highest evaluation in his career. An unheard 100% had positive attitude concerning Putin’s performance!
Seventy-four percent were ready to vote for Putin’s presidency.
The number of Russians who trust Putin has grown this month to 59%.
It looks like complete victory for Putin’s politics in Russia. However, a more precise analysis of statistics made by the Fund CSR (Center for Strategic Research) helps to find hidden meanings behind statistical figures.
Annexation of the Crimea seemed to Russians as a very easy victory and it had largely shaped a feeling of success, creating an optimistic outlook on foreign policy. In March 2014, according to the Levada-Center poll, 51% of Russians (15% more than at the beginning of 2013) considered “return of Russia as a great power” to be the leading achievement of Vladimir Putin.
In the summer the conflict entered into a new stage with less clear prospects. Public opinion was responded. Right after annexation of the Crimea three-quarters of respondents supported Russia’s direct participation in hostilities in Eastern Ukraine, if it would be necessary. But by mid-autumn support dropped to 36-38%.
By the beginning of this year attitude of Russians to foreign policy had further altered. Foreign policy shifted from achievements to threats.
According to the Levada-Center poll of January 2015, 33% of Russians considered “possibility of pulling Russia into military conflicts outside the country” a threat, and 22% considered “growing tensions with the West” a threat. That was almost three times higher than in January 2014. But. even more important, by the end of the year in the public focus on foreign policy became quickly superseded by the economic crisis – primarily caused by the depreciation of the ruble and rising food prices. For 54% of Russians “the rise in prices” and for 49% “the economic crisis” became the main concerns in January 2015.
Scientists of the Center for Strategic Research tried to look into the subconscious mind of their respondents.
They conducted a psychological test. They asked respondents to compare the Russian president with any animal of their choice. A year ago respondents were choosing mainly large animals, such as bear, lion, tiger. By the end of the year these animals were gradually replaced by the less impressive ones, for example, someone had chosen hedgehog, people were choosing a dove or even smaller bird in place of an eagle. Two-thirds of the respondents significantly lowered the status of the animal as compared to the beginning of the year.
Then the researchers decided to measure this change of attitude by asking respondents what would be the weight of the imaginary animals, compatible with the president. They took the average weight of the animals referred to at the beginning and at the end of the year. It has decreased by more than a third – 64% of the original. Interestingly, the rate of the ruble against the US dollar on December 10, 2014 (the date of the study) decreased to 61% compare to the rate of January 10, 2014.
US dollars exchange rate, the Russia’s gross domestic product, and personal income of each Russian all decreased by a similar degree.
In the opinion of the researchers this coincidence was not accidental. It reflected the reduction in confidence of Russia’s economy.
“Thus, we can see how the country’s foreign policy weight reduces at the subconscious level with deterioration of the economic situation. ” – writes Mikhail Dmitriev, the scientific head of the Fund CSR (Center for Strategic Research) in his article published by Slon.ru.
Mikhail Dmitriev is one of the most prominent Russian economists. He had been the president of CSR from 2004 to 2014. He often opposed the economic policies of the Putin’s government.
In the evening, March 19, 2014 Dmitriev was attacked in the staircase of the apartment building, where he lives. His briefcase and computer with confidential material were stolen. The assailants didn’t take wallet with money. The victim suffered a concussion and multiple cuts and bruises of head. The culprits were not found.
Shortly after the attack Dmitriev left the position of CSR President.
On February 2015, Dmitriev predicted that the anti-crisis plan of the Russian government is not going to prevent the Russian economy experiencing a deep recession. Because of this, he foresees serious political shifts in the elections to the State Duma in 2016.
