EDITOR: This is an informative article on the status of the Middle East. It is worth reading in its entirety.
NEW YORK REVIEW: … [Juan] Cole may be right that these people will continue to press for democratization, and that “as the millennials enter their thirties and forties, they will have a better opportunity to shape politics directly, so that we could well see an echo effect of the 2011 upheavals in future decades.” The memory of 2011, and the glimpse of unity and civility it offered, can never be taken away, and surely it will inspire many young (and old) people in years to come. One line of thinking, often heard among liberal revolutionaries, holds that the current chaos across the Middle East is the result of a doomed, desperate ploy by the various Arab anciens régimes to cling to power and forestall the inevitable triumph of a new order. Like many others, Cole invokes a parallel with the European revolutions of 1848, suggesting that something like France’s relatively liberal Third Republic, established in 1870, is around the corner for the Arab world.
Perhaps. But the educated young Arab liberals who make these arguments are anything but representative figures, even within their own age group. A number of polls have suggested that the attitudes of young people in the Middle East largely echo those of their elders. For all the slogans about “revolutionary youth” and the generational divide, some Arab academics argue that economic class is a far more potent indicator of attitudes than age.
The broader point is this: the educated youth who kicked off the revolutions of 2011 are not necessarily the vanguard of a new and more secular Middle East. They are one party in a bitter conflict over fundamental issues of identity and social order, a conflict whose outcome is far from certain. I have met many young Arabs who share Ziad el-Elaimy’s views, but I have also met plenty of others over the past three years who remain deeply loyal to Bashar al-Assad and his regime in Damascus, or to Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, or to Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran. Many of the young Gulf Arabs I know view the uprisings of 2011 with horror, and have become more convinced in their belief that the region is not ready for democracy anytime soon. Many of them are also just as passionately sectarian as their parents… (more)
