By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Even with the Pennsylvania primary still five weeks away, the campaign to elect a Governor who will rule for the next four years is already taking shape.
The last Democratic gubernatorial primary to attract almost this much star power happened in 1978. The candidates were Lt. Gov. Ernie Kline, Gov. Robert P. Casey (finally elected in 1986) and Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty. Flaherty won the primary by thumbing his nose at labor unions and organization Democrats and then lost – for the same reason – in the general election to Richard Thornburgh.
The Democratic outlook is much better this year.
Tom Corbett, a Republican, is rated the most vulnerable Governor in America. His campaign slogan is less taxes more jobs. He purports to have kept his 2010 campaign pledge to not raise taxes. He refuses to admit a huge hike in gasoline taxes and vehicle fees broke that pledge.
Corbett’s predecessor Ed Rendell used federal stimulus funds to increase pre-kindergarten education in public schools. Those funds ran out and Corbett chose to cut business taxes rather than make up the shortage. He tries to privatize much of state government and public education but has no success even though his party controls both chambers of the legislature.
As hopeless as all this appears for Republicans, no one has declared the fall elections a lock. Democrats have a million plurality voter registration but can point to few successes. Historically, Republicans have been better competitors. Democrats are unable to cobble together effective constituencies or see the big picture.
Republican strategy for the fall is predictable, varying only on who the Democrat nominee for governor is. Republicans have generally been more effective in negative advertising than Democrats.
Corbett’s dirt tossing squad (defined here as anyone who spreads nasty about Corbett’s opponent regardless of who signs his/her paycheck) is already at work on a script for the fall. Most analysts believe he would have the easiest time running against Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz.
Schwartz is pro-Choice and anti-gun. With a quarter century of votes cast in either the PA Senate or US House of Representatives, Corbett’s minions will have numerous issues to cast her in an unfavorable light. The GOP will shoot for huge margins in western PA where people do not trust anyone from Philadelphia and Democrats vote conservative.
Either Tom Wolf, the early front-runner and York County businessperson, or Rob McCord, state treasurer and venture capitalist, could win the primary. Then expect the type of campaign on behalf of Corbett that President Obama’s people ran against Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012.
The common denominator here is that both Obama and Corbett spent little time in the private sector. An opponent who claims to have created jobs in the private sector can be an effective issue. The best way to deflect this is to paint the businessman-candidate as someone worse than Bernie Maddoff.
The skill comes in varnishing the truth with “plausible allegations” so that facts get lost in the shuffle.
The Philadelphia Inquirer and Rep. Schwartz’s campaign have raised questions about Wolf’s efforts to help his family business survive the recession. More questions surround a personal loan Wolf took out to help underwrite his campaign for Governor. Wolf has a commanding lead in the latest polls, but these issues can hurt.
McCord’s business sins will need more varnish if he is the winner of the primary. Supposedly, a technology council he was associated with prior to becoming State Treasurer promoted outsourcing as a business survival tactic. In spite of this, McCord has piled up the most labor union endorsements.
The fourth Democrat candidate, Katie McGinty, would also make a good Governor. Making sound environmental practices co-exist with job development is her strong point. She is unlikely to raise adequate funds for her TV campaign and will only figure in the hunt if the total primary vote is spread evenly across all four candidates.
Bottom Line: In 2006, US Senator Bob Casey Jr. upended then incumbent Rick Santorum by 18 points in the general election. Polls show Corbett can lose by an equal margin, but only if the Democrats have all their ducks in line.
Disclaimer: The writer intends to vote for McCord in the Democrat primary because he believes he will make the best governor.
