So here we go again? Downtown Lancaster’s ongoing downward spiral.

We confess we did not appreciate how a Convention Center progress report published by the Intelligencer Journal Lancaster New Era May 17, 2012 would be leveraged to justify, without an apparent scintilla of a feasibility study, to perpetuate the further downward spiral of the City of Lancaster.

We again encountered the article through a routine visit to the Lancaster County Convention Center Authority web site where it is conspicuously posted. This time we picked up on its implications.

Here are pertinent excerpts from “Report: Convention center doing OK: Lack of nearby hotel rooms cited as drawback”:

“Researchers preparing a report on the operations and finances of the Lancaster County Convention Center spent four months interviewing county residents and visiting tourist sites here…

“While the downtown location, with restaurants, bars and other attractions within walking distance, was considered a plus for the center, the lack of nearby hotels was considered a detriment.

“The attached Marriott has 299 rooms and the closest hotel is the 225-room Hotel Brunswick, two blocks north of the convention center. The Brunswick is not considered “convention quality,” according to the report.

“Lancaster has the fewest convention-quality rooms within a half-mile radius when compared to other facilities…
“The report was prepared by Conventions Sports & Leisure, a Minneapolis-based consultant. Financing information was prepared by Colorado-based Hospitality Real Estate Counselors…”

Now from the point of view of the Convention Center, more hotel rooms in downtown Lancaster may be desirable. But that is hardly reason to invest over $15 million into the former Hilton / Ramada / Brunswick /and now Lancaster Hotel. Once again, one would want to see a Feasibility Study by a prominent national hotel expert before making such a decision.

The County Commissioners had commissioned such a report in May, 2006 from PKF Associates on the proposed Marriott / Convention Center project and it foretold the financial woes of the Convention Center.

It isn’t just a question of the potential loss of taxpayer funds channeled through a the new Community Revitalization Improvement Zone (CRIZ) program. A direct competitor to the Marriott can destroy the Marriott’s current viability. If it hemorrhages money, as happens with hotels whose occoupancy and rates drop below break even, lessee Penn Square Partners may well exercise its right to turn the facility back to the City of Lancaster which owns it.

Since the Marriott and the Convention share the same building and the Marriott provides many of the services for the convention center, a financially distressed Marriott is likely to deteriorate from lack of refurbishments and diminishing of the quality of its services. It may very well lose its Marriott franchise

In short, Mayor Rick Gray and City Planner Randy Petterson are ‘doubling down’ on their Marriott Hotel / Convention Center bet of latter years, hoping, but without evidence, that somehow a second downotown three star hotel will attract events and enable the Convention Center to stop its heavy losses. (The Center loses money on Operations alone, which doesn’t include the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to be set aside each year towards future repairs and renovations. Nor is it required to pay real estate taxes.)

Downward spiral? Studies show that almost all downtown areas are enjoying an influx of shops and restaurants, accompanied by a demand for upscale housing by affluent ’empty nesters’ from the suburbs. May Gray likes to take credit. Meanwhile, the ill conceived Convention Center Project continues fester. To date, there has been no nadoption of the Martin Plan for a fiscal rescue.

Some people think themselves so smart that they have all of the answers no matter what the subject and need not listen to experts. They indeed may be very intelligent. But they are fools.