QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL: U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak is within striking distance of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, trailing the long-time incumbent 47 – 39 percent among likely primary voters, compared to his 53 – 32 percent gap April 7, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In the Democratic primary for Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato has36 percent to lead a pack of largely unknown candidates, none of whom tops 9 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Another 37 percent are undecided and 60 percent of likely primary voters who express a choice say they might change their mind.
“The Senate race is closing and could be headed for a close finish, while the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination is moving in the opposite direction,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “With only two weeks until the May 18 primary, Onorato can feel somewhat confident, while Sen. Specter should be more concerned.”
The narrowing of the Specter/Sestak race is confirmed by other measures as well:
- Democrats trust Specter more than Sestak to do what he says he will do 42 – 31 percent, compared to 43 – 26 percent April 7;
- Voters give Specter a 57 – 31 percent favorability, compared to 60 – 26 percent;
- Sestak gets a 43 – 11percent favorability, compared to 33 – 6 percent.
But Democrats say 60 – 23 percent that Specter is more likely to win in November, little changed from April 7.
Only 14 percent of Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided and 35 percent of those who have picked a candidate say they might change their mind.
“Sen. Specter switched parties because he was worried about losing in the Republican primary. His big lead among likely Democratic primary voters has disappeared and although he remains ahead, momentum is clearly on Sestak’s side at this point,” said Brown. “As a Republican, Specter did well among Democrats, but large majorities of Democrats have been voting against him for 30 years and that might be a tough habit for many of them to break. In addition, Specter’s big lead in name identification has begun to erode as Sestak television commercials introduce him to the voters outside his suburban Philadelphia base.”
Onorato, who has outspent his competitors on television, gets 36 percent of Democratic primary voters, compared to 9 percent for Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel and 8 percent each for Auditor General Jack Wagner and State Sen. Tony Williams. In Quinnipiac University’s April poll of likely primary voters, Onorato was at 20 percent, Hoeffel 15 percent, Wagner 13 percent and Williams 5 percent.
“Onorato has outspent his opponents on the campaign trail, especially on television, and it shows in the results,” said Brown. “Although only slightly more than half of likely voters know enough about him to have an opinion, 46 – 5 percent favorable, 73 to 77 percent of Democrat don’t know enough about any of the other three to have an opinion about them. At this point, less than 20 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Wagner, Hoeffel or Williams. That is a big advantage for Onorato entering the home stretch of the campaign.”
From April 28 – May 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 930 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The sample is drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
