By Dick Morris
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Political events of 2014 to date have been unkind to the quixotic pilgrimage of US Senator-aspirant Joe Sestak.
Sestak’s journey began in 2010 on the brightest note. He vacated his safe Southeastern PA Congressional after only two terms to take on resilient long time Senator Arlen Specter in a bruising Democrat primary.
Specter, now deceased, had switched from Republican to Democrat, finally running with a political party that he seemingly agreed with more often than his own. He enjoyed the backing of then Gov. Ed Rendell, US Senator Bob Casey, AFL-CIO, much of the state Democrat party hierarchy and – did we mention – President Obama.
Despite the odds, Sestak spanked Specter even worse than polls predicted. Few, except Sestak, realized rank-and-file Democratic voters (including union members) were weary of Specter’s opportunistic twists over two decades. Finally, voters realized Specter was more about Specter than any decent political philosophy.
However, 2010 was not a great year for Democrats. Sestak narrowly lost in the fall to current US Senator Pat Toomey. Almost from the day after that fall election, Sestak declared he would run against Toomey when he came up for re-election in 2016. Because he vacated his Congressional seat, he lost the chance to run in 2016 as a five-term member of the US House of Representatives.
Instead, Sestak has been immersed in a singular purpose of keeping his name in front of Democratic voters, traveling the Commonwealth, raising just enough funds to be barely visible. Some of his advisors pleaded he run for Governor this year, or – at the least – Lt. Governor, as a stepping stone to the Senate in 2016.
Such continued visibility would serve as a catapult into the office he really covets.
Sestak’s interest in politics and governance has always been clearly at the Federal level. His grasp of defense, foreign affairs and national security remains impressive. Being a retired admiral and advisor in such matters to President Clinton provide a solid background.
He rejected the idea. One speculation is that he hoped to outlive and/or outflank Democrat powerbrokers he had pissed off in running against Specter. To run for either governor or lieutenant governor would have required that he crawl into bed with people that he disliked and despised him.
And so Sestak continued to crisscross the state, raising funds and speaking to small groups in the midst of larger and more immediate efforts to elect candidates to other offices.
Now, Sestak must deal with the growing power of women at the ballot box. In the first five months of 2014, three Pennsylvania Democrats – Allyson Schwartz, Katie McGinty and Kathleen Kane – pose threats to Sestak winning the Democrat nomination for Senate in 2016.
Kathleen Kane is in her second year as the state’s first female elected Attorney General. She is constantly in the news, battling child molestation, Gov. Corbett and low-hanging fruit on the crime-fighting tree.
Schwartz and McGinty were both losers in the May 20 Democrat primary for Governor to Tom Wolf. Schwartz finished second, edging out Rob McCord. McGinty finished last, but has the unique ability to “light up a room” in touch-the-flesh campaigning.
More importantly, both intend to play a role in Wolf’s campaign this fall. Wolf is busy as this is written pushing McGinty to be the elected state party chair. He has yet to ask Sestak for assistance and there is no guarantee Sestak would oblige.
This means Schwartz and McGinty will continue to get a paragraph or sound-bite as they headline rallies of the party faithful. Even if Wolf should not be successful (unlikely), they will have access to his fund raising and campaign machinery for US Senate in 2016.
Public Policy Polling recently tested the waters for a Toomey re-election campaign in 2016. Not surprising. Kane actually led Toomey 42 to 40%, McGinty finished just behind at 38 to 42%. Sestak trailed slightly at 35% to Toomey’s 42%.
Bottom Line: Sestak may be the most qualified candidate to ever run for Senate from Pennsylvania. Does that trump the long-denied quest to put a female in either the Governor’s or US Senator’s office? The primary for US Senate — still 22 months away – holds the answer.
