By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Here’s proof parties have less influence in elections and governance.
At least eight candidates have either formally announced or contemplate a campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor in the spring of 2014.
All would like you to believe they are doing this as a favor to you. Truth is they are opportunists. If Republican Tom Corbett were not the most unpopular governor on record, the Democrats would throw up someone little known and underfunded.
Or at the least, one or two idealists might. Safe to say, those idealists stand no chance in next year’s Democrat primary.
Next year’s race for Governor is known as a “tweener” contest. Until 1970 Governors were not permitted to succeed themselves, bowing out after a single four-year term. Beginning then a change in the PA Constitution permitted Governors to succeed themselves for one more term.
Since then Milton Shapp (D) in 1974, Dick Thornburgh (R) in 1982, Bob Casey (D) in 1990, Tom Ridge (R) in 1998 and Ed Rendell (D) in 2006 have done exactly that. Shapp, Casey, Ridge and Rendell won second terms easily.
As Corbett’s cellar-dwelling poll numbers sink even deeper, 2014 will not be a routine “tweener” election? The sixth PA governor able to succeed himself, might not.
Thornburgh almost did not fit the pattern. In 1978 Thornburgh campaigned almost exclusively on his relentless prosecution of Democrat politicians. In the Democrat primary Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty won over Shapp’s Lt. Governor Ernie Kline, and Casey. All were judged heavyweights. Flaherty thumbed his nose at the Democrat organization and lost to Thornburgh.
When 1982 rolled around, Thornburgh had shown leadership in the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster. He was popular and considered unbeatable, at least by Flaherty, Kline and Casey who passed up the Democrat primary. Underfunded and unknown Allen Ertel, a mid-state District Attorney, took on the formidable Thornburgh.
Surprisingly, Thornburgh only won by about 100,000 votes. What didn’t show up on the radar screen early enough for the Dem heavyweights was that 1982 was an anti-Republican year. Governorships in all surrounding states fell into the Democrat column that fall. There was no question the three better known and funded Dem heavyweights could have churned out another 100,000 votes.
Casey, who also ran against Milt Shapp in the 1970 primary, made his third try for PA Governor in 1986. This time he won.
What happened in those other “tweener” elections would have been duplicated in 2014 if Corbett were not so vulnerable. The 2006 “tweener” battle for Governor only comes to mind because it was the most recent. That year the Republicans threw Lynn Swann against Rendell. A popular receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Swann was no match for Rendell.
Even the most avid political junkie would have to research who the sacrificial lambs were in the other “tweener” campaigns.
Some Democrats think there is no way they can lose next year. Wrong.
What if there were so many primary candidates that the winning Democrat only garnered 25-30 per cent of the vote? Certainly it is possible to snag one out of four primary votes with extremist views. The Democrat winner could be pro-choice (or rigid anti-abortion), pro-right-to-work, ultra conservative or ultra liberal. The winning primary candidate holds views that are unacceptable to a large segment of the Democrat voters in the fall. Those voters stay home or cross over for Corbett, allowing him to be elected to a second term.
If strong Party leadership were ever needed it is in 2014. One clue that disaster is confronting Democrats happens in February. If the Democrat State Committee fails to endorse a candidate, or cannot reduce the number of candidates, the primary winner may get so few votes that he/she will not mount a good effort in the fall.
BOTTOM LINE: Gone are the days when both major political parties were able to put their best candidates on the ticket for important offices. Candidates for major offices today have their own organizations and pay scant attention to the “machine.” Candidates today are opportunists and believe displaying loyalty to their party will cost them votes.
What Democrat party official will ask each of the candidates running in the 2014 Primary this question.
“If Tom Corbett was not the most vulnerable governor in America, would you still be challenging him?”
