Editorial “Winning states, losing delegates” punditizes (to coin a word):
“Although Santorum won a substantial victory in Alabama and edged Gingrich and Romney in Mississippi, he effectively split the conservative vote with Gingrich. This despite the fact that he won the evangelical vote — which was expected — and the female and under-30 vote — which was not.”…
“While Santorum was relishing his victory — ‘We did it again,’ he told a crowd in Louisiana — Gingrich repeated his vow to remain in the race until August when the national convention is held.
“That may assuage [Gingrich’s] ego, but so long as he remains in the race, he continues to deny Santorum the ability to effectively challenge Romney for delegates.”
WATCHDOG: The editors are probably wrong on all accounts.
National commentators have made the point that the conservative Gingrich vote would more likely be almost evenly split between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, since Gingrich attracts much of his conservative votes on issues different from those of Santorum.
More important, a Romney / Santorum match would assure Romney victory, because without Gingrich siphoning off Romney votes and delegates, Romney would be able to readily achieve the 50% of delegates necessary for his nomination.
The big question today is whether we will see a ‘brokered convention’ with the candidate being determined during the sixty day interlude between the last primary and the convention, or an ‘open convention’ with the choice taking place after the first ballot, at which time delegates are freed of obligations.
Our prediction: The strongest possible Republican ticket will ensue: Romney / Santorum. This would be bad news for President Barack Obama and the Democrats.
