NEW YORK TIMES: Congressional budget analysts, providing a positive economic assessment of proposed immigration law changes, said Tuesday that legislation to overhaul the nation’s immigration system would cut close to $1 trillion from the federal deficit over the next two decades and lead to more than 10 million new legal residents in the country.
A long-awaited analysis by the Congressional Budget Office found that the benefits of an increase in legal residents from immigration legislation currently being debated in the Senate — which includes a pathway to citizenship — would outweigh the costs. While the report was a clear victory for immigration proponents, it came just hours after Speaker John A. Boehner raised potential new obstacles for the bill, saying he would not bring any immigration measure to the floor unless it had the support of a majority of House Republicans.
The report estimates that in the first decade after the immigration bill is carried out, the net effect of adding millions of additional taxpayers would decrease the federal budget deficit by $197 billion. Over the next decade, the report found, the deficit reduction would be even greater — an estimated $700 billion, from 2024 to 2033. The deficit reduction figures for the first decade do not take into account $22 billion in the discretionary spending required to implement the bill, however, making the savings slightly lower… (more)
EDITOR: The younger immigrant group and their greater number of children would also provide greater revenue for the Social Security fund at a time that there is a far higher percentage of aging Americans.
The benefits of increased immigration are VERY dubious. As with any governmental shift there will be winners and losers, not a panacea.
At a time when low and medium skill jobs are evaporating due to computer automation, the need for more workers is really nonexistent. I’m not saying we shouldn’t have immigration, but how many doctors, nurses, and computer workers will we get for every 100 immigrants? We can’t fund phys ed and art for the students we have now. Who’s going to pay to ESL and all the other special classes needed for immigrants?
Given the accuracy and reliability of past CBO estimates I believe they cannot be trusted. One must remember that the CBO must limit it’s studies as congress tells it to do. Most of the time the studies include tax increases not enacted, and other factors often described as “portraying the legislation in it’s most favorable light.”
It would be nice if the CBO could include a probability of accuracy number in it’s report unfettered by congressional influence.