From USA TODAY:
…The 39 economists polled Aug. 3-11 put the chance of another downturn at 30% — twice as high as three months ago, according to their median estimates. That means another shock to the fragile economy — such as more stock market declines or a worsening of the European debt crisis — could push the nation over the edge.
Yet even if the USA avoids a recession, as economists still expect, they see economic growth muddling along at about 2.5% the next year, down from 3.1% in April’s survey. The economy must grow well above 3% to significantly cut unemployment.
As a result, the economists predict the jobless rate will fall painfully slowly, dipping to 8.8% in 12 months, not much below today’s 9.1%. In April, they estimated unemployment would be 8.2% by mid-2012…
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EDITOR: “The United States Census Bureau shows population increases ranging between 0.85% and 0.89% for the twelve-month periods ending in 2009.” Thus a 2.5% growth rate would have the per capital effect of 1.6%. The definition of “recession” is three consequetive quarters (nine months) without increase in Gross National Product. That amounts to a minimum loss of 2.7% in GNP on a per capital basis! In other words, anything much under 1% growth in GNP means we are moving backwards on a per capita basis.
