Corbett picks up a few points, but still trails Wolf 55-38 percent in new Quinny poll.

By Chris Comisac
Bureau Chief
Capitolwire

HARRISBURG (Oct. 7) – As other polls have shown, the gubernatorial contest between Gov. Tom Corbett and Democrat Tom Wolf is tightening with only a few weeks before the November 4 General Election, but based on the results from a new Quinnipiac University poll, Corbett is going to need a big swing to get within shouting distance of Wolf.

The poll conducted by Quinnipiac University between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5 surveying 907 likely voters found Wolf holding a 55 percent to 38 percent lead over Corbett, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac does not provide a separate survey result simply for registered voters, but the survey’s demographic summary indicates of those responding to the survey, 31 percent were registered Republican, 40 percent were registered Democrat, 23 percent were registered Independent, with 6 percent something else.

Compared to the findings of Quinnipiac’s Sept. 11 poll, Corbett picked up three percentage points and Wolf dropped four. But with 85 percent of survey respondents saying their vote has already been decided, and only 13 percent saying they could change their mind, the numbers appear a bit daunting for the governor.

“With a slight shift in the numbers as a handful of Republicans come back, there is a pinprick of light at the end of the long, dark reelection tunnel, but time is not on Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett’s side,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “It’s a matter of simple math and the ticking clock and both are working against Gov. Corbett.”

Corbett is starting to see a return of his Republican base, but still not at the level one would expect for an incumbent governor hoping to win reelection: his support with GOP voters is at 75 percent, up from 66 percent in the Sept. 11 poll, but there remain 22 percent of registered Republican voters not backing Corbett.

The governor is likewise underperforming outside his base, trailing Wolf with registered independents 49 percent to 40 percent. Wolf, obviously, is doing well with his own party’s voters, leading Corbett among Democrats 87 percent to 7 percent.

And Corbett is losing the battle for the sexes as well, particularly with female voters. Wolf leads Corbett 59 percent to 34 percent among women voters, and holds a 51 percent to 42 percent lead with men.

The poll comes on the heels of two gubernatorial debates, during which Corbett performed ahead of expectations and Wolf played it fairly safe (although he was a bit more feisty during the second encounter), as well as the beginning of a porn email scandal that, while it doesn’t involve Corbett directly, has cost two high-level Corbett administration officials their jobs and a third Corbett appointee could be next.

Both Wolf’s favorable and unfavorable numbers went up from the September poll: by a margin of 52 percent to 26 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely voters have a favorable opinion of Wolf, compared to September’s 50 percent to 22 percent favorability rating.

Corbett in September received a negative 33 percent to 55 percent favorability rating, which improved slightly in the new Quinnipiac poll, but it’s still a negative 38 percent to 49 percent favorability rating.