Editor’s note: The majority of veteran drug policy reformers opposed a marijuana ligalization initiative being placed on the California ballot prior to 2012, a presidential election year when a larger turnout will take place. Nevertheless, Richard Lee of Oakland, CA spent a million dollars from his own pocket (a huge share of his wealth) to obtain the required signatures and to launch the campaign. That Proposition 19 is doing so well is not only a surpise given the lack of finacial support but also because earlier polling had not suggested more than about half of the public would support it. A factor has been the lack of opposition from organizations that are usually staunchly supportive of the War on Drugs. If passed, Proposition 19 almost certainly will lead to re-evaluation of how marijuana use is perceived and treated in the United States and elsewhere.
DRUG WAR CHRONICLE: Proposition 19 pot legalization initiative leads 47%-38% in the latest Public Policy Polling survey of likely voters. That’s good, but not great, news for the campaign.
Good because nine points is a nice cushion six weeks out from election day. But not great because Prop 19 is still polling under 50% when it needs 50% plus one vote to win and because the race is closer than in the previous Public Policy Polling survey in July, when it led 52%-36%.
The poll is an automated phone survey of 630 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. It took place last week.\
Most, but not all recent polls, have shown Prop 19 leading. The Talking Points Memo Poll Average on Prop 19, which combines all the recent polls, has the measure leading 47.8% to 38.8%.
Telephone robo-polls have generated higher numbers than face to face interview polls, leading some observers to suggest some people may be more willing to embrace a controversial position like marijuana legalization in the facelessness of the robo-polls.
Prop 19 was supported by 74% of liberals, 47% of moderates, and only 27% of conservatives. 53% of men supported it, compared to only 42% of women, suggesting the campaign has not been able to overcome lackluster support in what it considers a key swing constituency.
Whites showed the strongest support at 49%, followed by blacks at 46%, Asians at 44%, and the large Hispanic electorate at 42%.
Six weeks out, victory appears tantalizingly within reach, but defeat cannot be ruled out. This sucker is going down to the wire.
