In “The Upside Of Down, Why the Rise of the Rest Is Good for the West” (2013), Charles Kenny points out that, due to spreading education and technology, there is a convergence of wealth among the nations of the world and in future decades the total economies of China and India will far exceed those of the United States. To some that is bad news.
But the good news is that the individual wealth and well being of those living in the USA will become much greater than today, and likely remain the highest in the world.
Both China and India each have over a billion inhabitants while the USA has about 316 million. However, if we add together the USA, Canada and the European Union, and then add Japan and possibly even Mexico, the “West” will be equal in population size as either of the two, and certainly far wealthier.
Moreover, worldwide economies will become even more intertwined.
According to Kenny:
“[Arvind ] Subramanian is not the only one who sees the world that way, Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment suggests that by 2050, Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, and Russia will have a combined economy of $80 trillion – larger than the economies of the combined G-7 nations (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan) and more than double the size of the whole world’s economy in 2009.
“Meanwhile, according to the forecasts of the accounting firm Pricewaterhouse-Coopers, even using fairly conservative long term growth rates, India [‘s economy] may be nearly as large as the United States by 2050, Brazil’s economy will be larger than Japan’s, Indonesia and Mexico will have bigger GDPs than Germany or the United Kingdom, and the Turkish economy might be the same size as Italy’s.
“But all of these different forecasts also suggest that everyone – both the Rest and the West – will be richer. For example, Pricewaterhouse-Coopers estimates suggest that average [family?] income the United States in 2050 will be around $93,000, compared to $44,000 in 2007. Germany and the United Kingdom will both see average incomes above $70,000. The average Mexican in 2050 will be richer than the average US citizen today, and Chinese average incomes will be above Germany’s today, at $35,000.”
Elsewhere Kenny observes:
“It is those who are concerned by the rise of China who suggest raising the drawbridge – cutting off trade and pumping ever more resources into the military. It is those who would rather see absolute decline twinned with relative stability than relative decline yoked to absolute growth who back weaker global institutions and limited migration. It is those who deny the potential for international agreement who want America to adapt to high temperatures rather than forge global treaties to avoid them. Pessimism can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and perhaps the greatest threat to a brighter future is to dwell on the risk of failure. An optimistic view of the future is not only the most plausible; it is also the most helpful. The declinists wall at their own risk – and ours.”
This is the first half of our review. We still have 150 pages to read.
