By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: There is one benefit to Pennsylvania being so “politics-as-usual.” A pundit has less difficulty in predicting the race for governor in 2014.
For example, next year’s race will not follow the path of other “interim campaigns” for governor. Until Milton Shapp, governors were limited to a single four-year term.
A change in the state constitution in 1969 changed the term limit. After that, governors could serve two consecutive four-year terms. Four of the five governors who have served under the two-term limit have trounced the opposition to win the second term.
In some cases the party out of power appeared to surrender before the campaign began. For example, Gov. Ed Rendell, Democrat, won his second term, crushing Lynn Swann, a hall of famer with the Steelers but a lousy politician.
Actually, all five modern-day PA governors have won a second term. Republican Governor Richard Thornburgh needed help from clueless Democrats to win re-election in 1982.
He succeeded Shapp in 1978 in a spirited campaign. In the Democrat primary that year three strong candidates – Lt. Gov. Ernie Kline, eventual governor Bob Casey and feisty Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty battled. Flaherty won the primary but lost to Thornburgh in the fall.
Early in his first term Thornburgh earned universal praise for his handling of the meltdown at Three Mile Island. Like Shapp before him and Casey, Tom Ridge and Rendell after, Thornburgh looked like a sure bet to win a second term.
Come 1982, all three 1978 heavyweights decided to sit out the Democrat primary. Allen Ertel, a well-liked but unknown District Attorney from Lycoming County, won by default the right to battle Thornburgh in the fall. Despite being starved for cash, Ertel only lost by about 100,000 votes, much closer than forecast.
1982 was not much of a good year for Republicans nationally. Incumbent GOP governors lost in Ohio, New York and Indiana. Pennsylvania was an exception due to failure by Democrat Party leaders to provide adequate opposition.
Already, it is obvious 2014 will not be a repeat of 1982.
No modern PA governor has had negative poll numbers as severe as Tom Corbett. Several analysts have cited the former Attorney General as the most vulnerable governor in America.
Corbett’s negatives will likely remain high going into next year. His party’s lawmakers – in the majority — believe their version of the budget will at least get them re-elected next year.
Liquor privatization is tentative. Year-end tax collections are behind projections. Lawmakers are trying to find more funds for education than Corbett wants. Continued cuts to business taxes will be postponed.
These factors cause Corbett’s business support to soften. His overall negatives will remain a shade north of extinction.
Democrat heavyweights are not sitting out 2014. There could be as many as six candidates in the primary capable of defeating Corbett in the fall.
The big question next year involves the direction of national political winds. Will more scandals in the Obama administration harm Democrats at the polls? Will the collapse of Obamacare breathe life into Republicans at the state level?
Regardless, Pennsylvania Democrats have a unique opportunity to serve the population next year.
The safe strategy for Democrats is to “hunker down,” a tactic they favor, and hope Republicans will self-destruct. In this type of campaign, Democrats pledge new and restored programs but not a whisper on how to pay for same.
After all, that strategy worked for Republicans in 2010. Corbett campaigned that he would not raise taxes, never saying what programs would suffer. Democrats permitted Corbett to control the campaign.
BOTTOM LINE – Voters once relied on mainstream media for more informative campaigns. Now party leaders must insure that candidates will fully inform voters. Democrats can end politics as usual. Next week’s column shows how.
