What Viktor Orbán’s victory means for Hungary and the West

WASHINGTON POST: On Sunday, the Hungarian people reelected Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his nationalist, right-wing political party Fidesz for another four-year term. Although it received only 44 percent of the popular vote, Fidesz has nonetheless secured 66 percent, or possibly 67 percent, of the seats in the Hungarian parliament. By contrast, the allied opposition of socialists, social democrats and liberals, with 26 percent of the vote, will take 19 percent of the seats, while the far-right Jobbik that gained 20 percent of the vote will get 10 percent of the seats. Such a disproportionate outcome is made possible by the mandate-enhancing, self-serving feature of the electoral law passed by Fidesz in 2011.

With one seat undecided, it is unclear if Orbán will now end up with a simple majority or will once again have a two-third supermajority lined up behind him in the new parliament. What is clear is that he has received almost 700,000 fewer votes – eight percent less — than he did in 2010 when he was swept into office. The erosion of his popular support notwithstanding, his hold on every aspect of Hungary’s political and economic life remains unchanged…

It is, indeed, hard to find evidence in the economy for the government’s campaign slogan, “Hungary is performing better.” On the contrary, Hungary, once a leader among its peers, now lags behind the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland. Only the export sector has grown in the past four years, due largely to artificially low wages the government has promoted. A new flat tax rate of 16 percent on personal income benefits individuals with above-average incomes. The value of the forint, the Hungarian currency, has dropped 15 percent in the past four years. According to the Economist, the Hungarian stock market index is the second worst-performing index this year in the world (after Russia’s); since 2010, it has lost more than 40 percent of its value… (more)

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