WASHINGTON POST: …From just the numbers, the message seems to be that we’ve been here before. Recessions take a terrible toll. It’s a familiar story. But I don’t think it’s true — the Great Recession is different — and I suspect most Americans agree. The standard trends measured by Census (income, poverty, health insurance) are incomplete. That’s not Census’s fault. Still, they don’t fully convey the recession’s effects on Americans’ welfare and psychology. …
A fatalistic sense that the economic slump will never end is often present, as it is now, in the early stages of recovery. Sometime in the future, we may view today’s melancholy similarly. Maybe we’re caught in a pessimism trap. But past recessions often had benefits. The 1980-82 downturn was induced to squelch inflation — and it did. Consumer price increases fell from 13 percent in 1980 to 4 percent in 1982. Any benefits from the Great Recession are well hidden.
The Census study of income and poverty is often called “the nation’s economic report card.” Paradoxically, this year’s low grades actually overstate our performance. History suggests that our grades will improve as the economy improves. Perhaps. But if this slump is different — as it seems — next year’s grades could be worse. (more)
