By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Most election and political tales begin and end with Donald Trump – at least this year.
The colorful, coarse icon is favored to arrive in Cleveland for the Republican National convention this summer with enough delegates to capture the nomination.
“Trump stopping Trump” is a bit more likely. However, recently the Pope singled him out for criticism. But he didn’t lay a glove on the candidate.
Supporters believe Trump tells the truth and will make a real attempt to help, unlike most of our political leaders of recent and present.
The renowned “GOP Establishment” is trying to rally behind Sen. Mario Rubio. Party leaders are fumbling extractions of other candidates. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie bowed out. The sigh of relief was short lived when, a few days later, the Pillsbury doughboy of national politics endorsed Trump.
When Rick Santorum suspended his campaign weeks ago, he still owed about $400,000 for expenses. When the former U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania dropped out of the presidential race four years ago, he also showed an over run of about $400,000. Neither debt has been liquidated.
Polls show Ohio Gov. John Kasich would beat Hillary Clinton in his home state. Same pollsters show that race is not in the cards because Trump will likely beat Kasich in the Ohio primary.
A year ago – even six months back – you could not find any pundit that gave Trump a chance. Everyone believed he would flame out by now. Today you can’t find a political “expert” who bets against Trump getting the nomination.
Democrats are astounded that it will be this easy to retain the White House. No one imagined the extent of GOP voter frustration with Washington.
Premise was that Sen. Bernie Sanders would stir a ruckus among Democrat voters, but Republicans would keep their discontent in check. For better than a decade the GOP establishment conned Tea Party members, convincing them unity against same-sex marriages, abortions and Obamacare was far more important than migration, banking and trade.
The early GOP dark horse was Dr. Ben Carson. Then at one highly entertaining debate, a moderator asked him a question about foreign policy. Dr. Ben couldn’t remember the countries or pronounce the dictators’ name.
Republican establishment did etch its way into history, however. They raised and spent over $100 million and registered only five percent for Jeb(!) Bush. That is both a record for high primary fundraising and a low for lousy vote results.
Party extinction becomes more likely. The strongest Republican candidate to challenge Trump appears to be Sen. Ted Cruz. Problem is that the establishment is scared of Cruz, almost as much as Trump. His answer to everything is shutting down of the government, but in a constructive fashion.
Republican misfortunes continue to occupy center stage. Marco Rubio, another first term Senator like Cruz and the current President, is the hoped-for last available Savior of the Republican Party.
Even if Rubio is able to grab the nomination from Trump, results at the fall General Election should be the same. His inexperience compared to Hillary’s experience will be the major issue.
Finally, there is the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia. President Obama intends to fulfill his constitutional obligation by nominating a candidate. The far-right Republican Senate intends to ignore the constitution by refusing to act on the nominee.
Establishment Republicans deserve the pickle they are in. They were comfortable in developing this Tea Party fringe group. Applying their expertise at gerrymandering, the leadership created Congressional districts for these newcomers that are becoming lifetime jobs.
Bottom Line: How is this for a wild conclusion to this election year? The right to submit a SCOTUS nominee passes to President Hillary. She picks former President Obama who is also a constitutional scholar.
The 2016 elections are not for the faint-hearted. Some states, such as Pennsylvania, will have their major battles.
