By Dick Miller

WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Pennsylvania’s budget stalemate is about to enter its sixth month.

The GOP did not re-elect Tom Corbett last year, but the second best outcome for that party may have been the election of Wolf. Using his own money, Wolf easily outdistanced three primary competitors, all with more political experience and endorsements.

This left Wolf as “man of the times” but in “Lone Ranger” fashion. His advisors had enough experience to guide him to victory, but not enough to take command of state government.

Wolf presented his first budget in February, calling for massive tax increases. Schools and social services are hurting, but Wolf cannot release funds unless he yields most of his budget proposals.

Wolf’s tax proposal that attracted the least opposition, a severance charge that levies on minerals mined in Pennsylvania, appears now to be dead in the water. Even though a majority of state voters favor the tax, the Republican-controlled legislature does not. Pennsylvania is the only state that spits up a huge amounts of natural gas, but does not tax production or yields.

Wolf wanted increases in sales tax and the personal income tax, these to reduce local school property taxes yet restore funds Corbett had stripped from education.

Republicans have signaled they “might” support more sales taxes, but not higher personal income levies. Republicans generally oppose all taxes, but settle for a levy more regressive on poor people than one that dents the wallet of their core group.

This time Republicans hope to get their “cake and eat it, too.” They want the extra sales tax collections applied to reducing school property taxes. Democrats are most affected by the sales tax and Republicans would enjoy more benefits.

Gov. Wolf has apparently agreed in principle on this framework to end the stalemate on the budget.

Various special interest groups lobbying for some budget that hurts their membership the least, pressure the Governor to cave. Apparently, the strategy becomes “easier to reach one person – Gov. Wolf – than a multitude of conservative Republican legislators.”

If Wolf blinks first, Republicans can tell voters their efforts help keep taxes lower is a reason for voting for them in next year’s General Election.

Wolf loses on a proposed “interim” budget that would fund critical services for at least a half year (with no tax increases). With social services and school districts placated, Wolf would lose impetus for Republicans to continue to bargain.

Apparently lacking confidence in public or fearful of antagonizing Republican lawmakers even more, Wolf has been less than clear on this point.

Most people believe his efforts to keep Pennsylvania in the liquor, wine and beer business are intended to keep 2,500 good-paying union jobs. More convenient hours, improved service and competitive pricing take a back seat to saving union jobs, but many polls show voters want private sales.

Bottom Line: Unless Wolf intends to spend his remaining three years as governor in the same fashion as his first, he needs to change tactics. Democratic legislative leaders and key personnel in his front office seem to be contributing nothing to this budget battle. They should either be used or replaced, as this is a team game.

Incidentally, Wolf will present his second annual budget, this one for 2016-17, in three months.

In fact, budgets in state government are a joke.

The work begins at street level where local offices submit a proposed budget based on what they think will be spent and left after the current budget. This submission for next year’s budget is due to their superiors in early summer just at the opening of the current year’s operating statement.

Because state budgets – at least in Pennsylvania – are developed in historical pattern, the proposals must be submitted on current year’s activities that have yet to occur.

In a reform minded mood, state government fiscally would reflect two major changes.

First, managers need to develop budgets in a zero-based style. Because of the periods, historical methods coupled with long lead times are likely accurate.

Second, like at least half of the states, Pennsylvania needs to operate on a two-year budget