Just heard about the Russian troops moving into the Crimea and occupying the two major airports. I am trying to figure out what Putin is up to.
Occupying the airports prevents the Ukrainian Army from flying troops in. Nor can they come in by sea, given that a strong Russian fleet is permanently anchored in Sevastopol.
This is what I expect. Russia will instigate pro-Russian demonstrations in the Crimea for a number of days, clamoring to become part of Russia and condemning the new Ukrainian government. Then there might be a plebiscite for joining Russia or not. The majority of the Crimean population will vote for integration in one form or another and for secession from Ukraine. A pro-Russian Crimean Government will be established, probably by way of an election.
Then the Russian Army will go back home. Putin will sit back for months or years, hoping that the Crimean example will be copied in Eastern Ukraine.
This scenario can only happen if
1. The Ukrainian Government opts not to try their hand against Russia militarily
2. The European Union just complains and does nothing of consequence
3. The United States just complains and does nothing beyond implementing some sanctions
I am afraid that might happen and Putin has another piece of the Soviet Union back.
EDITOR: So are we. But this is a problem for Europe to take the lead.
And if the Crimea becomes fully independent and an ally of Russia, is that the worse thing? In 1993, Czechoslovakia peacefully divided into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. They even mutually celebrated the split. Relations have remained relatively cordial.
Hopefully, the Western portion of the Ukraine will be able to rid itself of rule by a kleptocracy.
