John Baer: Contrarian poll sees Specter and Sestak even

From the PHILADELPHIA DAILY NEWS:

Arlen Specter’s scheduled for a Q&A at a Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon today, his fourth appearance since the club’s founding 14 years ago…

The Democratic Senate primary is just four weeks away and the latest poll shows Specter in a virtual tie with challenger Joe Sestak.

Is that possible? Is something happening that other polls aren’t picking up?

The average of four independent polls (Franklin & Marshall, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna and Rasmussen) shows Specter up 14.3 points; the latest of them, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Specter up only 2 points.

But polls vary in size of sample, execution and margin of error…

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