Is Russia Preparing to Annex Belarus?

By Slava Tsukerman

On November 30, a delegation of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, headed by the Commander of special operations Forces Major-General Vadim Denisenko arrived in Moscow for a three-day visit. During the official meeting, Commander of the Russian Airborne Troops Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov and the head of Belarusian delegation discussed plans of bilateral cooperation for 2017.

The arrival of Belarusian military delegation to Russia was preceded in November by the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Belarus. Shoigu attended a meeting of the joint board of the Ministries of Defense of the Republic of Belarus and Russian Federation.

According to the official report of the Ministry of Defense:

“The important accomplishments of the meeting of the Board was signing of a number of documents aimed at further development and deepening of military cooperation between Russia and Belarus… The meeting participants discussed the main approaches to the joint exercise ‘West – 2017’ ”

According to publications in the Internet the Russian Defense Ministry intends to send over four thousand railroad cars with military supplies in 2017 to Belarus. This number of cars is sufficient to transfer the major part of the Russian 1-st Guards Tank Army.

The 1st Tank Army was a Soviet armored formation that fought as part of the Red Army on the Eastern Front during World War II.  After a 16-year break, the Army was reconstituted in November 2014, after the outbreak of war with Ukraine. The military formation defined as “Army”  is traditionally created in Russia only at wartime. Today the 1st Guards Tank Army is composed of 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division; 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division; 6th Tank Brigade and 27th Independent Guards Sevastopol Motorized Rifle Brigade.

The information about new Russian – Belurusian joint military activity triggered emotional comments in Ukraine. Vadim Donvar, a well known Belarusian journalist now residing in Ukraine, wrote in the popular Ukrainian website Newsonline24:

”The events of the last months suggest that Russia plans to open a third military front in the next year, creating additional opportunity for full-scale invasion to Ukraine. In fact they plan the occupation of Belarus.”

Vadim Donvar adds that he doesn’t mean “a compulsory seizure of the territory of Belarus”, he speaks rather about a pseudo voluntary uniting of the two countries: Russia and Belarus under the guise of a referendum, the way similar to the way the annexation of Crimea was made.

Is it really possible?

Russian official state TV is a main source of information in Belarus. Most of Belarusians wouldn’t mind becoming Russian citizens. Not long ago one of leading Russian pro–Kremlin TV personalities Vladimir Solovyev visited Belarusian capital Minsk. Solovyev spoke to a huge crowd and one of the spectators asked him:

“Please, take us, as you took the Crimea!”

Solovyev answered: “In no case!”

The spectator’s naïve plea made headlines of many publications in the independent Belarusian media. The debate about the nature and consequences of such spectator’s behavior are still going on in Belarus.

Belarusians remember that the same Vladimir Solovyov was asked the similar question about the possibility of seizure of Crimea a few months before the occupation of the peninsula and his answer was the same: “In no case!”

Belarus is already a part of several integration associations with Russia. It is a member of Collective Security Treaty Organization, which implies overall military strategy of countries – members to the Eurasian Customs Union. Lukashenka joined this Union as a result of extreme Russian pressure. Economic dependence of Belarus on Russia is extremely high.

Belarus is a member of Commonwealth of Independent States. CIS  a union of former Soviet republics created in 1991. This confederacy is virtual and never operated in reality. However, an agreement on its creation has not been legally canceled. In the charter of this organization there are points about the common currency, a common foreign policy and, most importantly, the collective management of the whole territory of the CIS.

Alexander Lukashenka has kept his ruling position longer then all the other European heads of states (except for monarchs). He became the President of Belorus in 1994.

The CIS project was initially perceived by the Kremlin as a stage in the reunification of former Soviet republics. Lukashenka then believed that it is a way for him to enter into Russian politics with a view to lead the unified state, replacing the old and unpopular Boris Yeltsin. This circumstance forced the Kremlin to pretty much dilute the text of the relevant documents, and later put the idea out of mind. But the idea never was completely forgotten.

Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated to Lukashenka what happens to those, who do not fulfill the will of the Kremlin. Lukashenka is a very skilled diplomat and for many years manages to defend his interests by maneuvering between Russia and the West. Nevertheless his ability to thwart Moscow is limited.

The head of Belarus largely suits Moscow. In case of Russian takeover of his country, Lukashenka still may be able to stay in the role of its local head. And during his term Lukashenka already held three referendums in Belarus. The referendums always had the results planned by him.

Lukashenka has talked about a possible change of the Belarusian Constitution in the near future. What did he mean?

Vadim Donvar finishes his article in Newsonline24 with the words:

“If the absorption of Belarus by Russia will happen, Ukraine could face the military potential of Russia joined with Belarus. The kilometers of common border between Ukraine with Belarus will be added to the kilometers of the common border of Ukraine with Russia. And even if this monster will not attack Ukraine, the Ukrainian leadership will face many new issues: what to do with mutual trade, cooperation in the defense industry, petroleum, public transportation etc.”