By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Wagons are beginning to circle around Donald Trump. The presumptive nominee will open as a slight favorite to defeat Hillary Clinton in November.
She can only win if voters are convinced she is not the evil person the Republican Establishment has said she is for the past 25 years.
This civil war has gone on since 1980. President Ronald Reagan claimed the GOP nucleus was too moderate, too much like Democrats. He preached less government, at least at the Federal level, to justify tax cuts for the wealthy.
Because Reagan was so attractive to conservative Democrats, he became the Republican establishment. His supporters ruled for three decades. This same political machine stole two elections for Bush 43 (in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004). They have spent seven years vilifying President Barack Obama with not-so-subtle racial overtones.
For the past two years they have harped on Sec. Clinton, hoping Democrats will nominate someone more vulnerable. Recently, the GOP establishment detoured temporarily to bad mouth Donald Trump. This is the Party nucleus that spent nearly $80 million to push Jeb Bush and he got exactly zero delegates.
This year’s race will be exciting, even violent at times. On Election Day, however, less voters will go to the polls than did in 2000 and 2008. Voters have concluded their vote does not mean a damn.
About ten days ago, Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, was accused of assaulting Michele Fields, a female journalist with Breitbart News. Andrew Breitbart began the internet news service to counter the left-leaning media that commands most of the airwaves now, Fox excepted. Mr. Breitbart’s goal was to provide a counter, conservative, viewpoint on the important issues of the day.
Unfortunately, he had an untimely death a few months ago and his venture has been taken over by a right-wing extremist, Stephen Bannon. Not only did they not support its reporter; Breitbart bosses quickly came to Trump’s campaign manager’s defense. Ms. Fields and at least four other journalists have resigned Breitbart jobs in protest.
On Sunday, a week ago, Trump was interviewed four times by major media. Not one asked him a question about the incident. This is likely not intended to be a cover-up, but, rather the beginning of a wariness and fear of Trump’s command over a sizable segment of the media. Who wants to risk being passed over for a White House press pass next year?
Yesterday, Lewandowski assaulted a protester at Trump’s rally in Arizona. Trump claims that either the victim or a partner was wearing a Ku Klux Klan robe.
Recently, it was reported 1,600 voters have changed their registration to Republican in Lebanon County, PA. Speculation there is that most want to vote for Trump in the Keystone Republican primary April 26. Other counties are experiencing the same surge, making Trump the favorite to win the primary here. Statewide, more than 50,000 voters have changed registration from Democrat to Republican.
Pennsylvania does not conduct a cross-over primary like Ohio’s. Governor John Kasich, in a battle of crossover votes edged Trump to win the Ohio Primary. Going east to west, Trump’s victories last Tuesday county by county began heavily at the Ohio-PA border and began to thin 30 miles west of Youngstown, from Cleveland to the West Virginia Panhandle. Going west, the farther past steel towns, Kasich prevailed with solid margins in Columbus and Cincinnati.
Bottom Line: These results indicate Trump is poised to do well in the more conservative western PA counties along the Ohio border, from Erie to Greene. This penetration could extend as far east as Westmoreland and Cambria counties. Pennsylvania does not permit crossovers in the primary. Democrat votes for Trump will weigh more in the fall.
Registered PA Democrats were spotted at more than one eastern Ohio Trump rally leading up to last Tuesday’s primary.
