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Gallup: GOP Has 18-Point Lead In Low Turnout Scenario On a day when Democrats touted signs that the midterm election’s tide may be turning in their favor, a new Gallup poll showed Republicans potentially poised for a major victory in November. Using a “lower turnout model,” the Gallup 
poll of 1,882 likely voters (9/23-10/3) shows Republicans leading the generic ballot by 18 points, 56%-38%. Reporting on the poll, USA Today says that it “underscores the huge ‘enthusiasm’ advantage Republicans hold a month before elections,” and notes that “though the GOP has an edge of only 3 percentage points among registered voters on a generic congressional ballot…the Republican advantage widens to yawning double digits among those judged most likely to actually cast a ballot.” Stuart Rothenberg “cautions against accepting the numbers at face value,” but adds that “there’s no question the nation is moving toward ‘a very good election for Republicans.'”
Brit Hume, on Fox News’ Special Report, contended that a flurry of reports this weekend indicating that Democrats are regaining ground in Congressional races were based on polls of registered voters, not likely voters, who “favor Republicans by an average of about five points.” Hume also pointed to the new Gallup numbers.
Jordan Fabian, in a blog post for The Hill , says that “over the last few weeks, Gallup’s generic ballot polls of registered voters have shown both parties statistically tied.” Fabian also notes that the poll “comes one day after the White House claimed Democrats have been making up ground on Republicans in voter enthusiasm.”
