By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: Republicans have picked Cleveland for the sight of its national convention, supposedly because Ohio is a battleground state. This is also good news for West Central PA.
People living in that region of the Keystone State will again receive maximum attention in the 2016 presidential race. Strangely, due to demographics and population concentrations, this same region will be virtually ignored in this year’s battle to elect the next governor of Pennsylvania.
Why the paradox?
Both parties spend an estimated $150 million in Ohio on the 2012 presidential campaign, nearly all on television advertising. Owners of Youngstown TV stations fattened bank accounts. Nothing scientific, but Youngstown probably drew more than its share of presidential attention than – proportionately – goes to Cleveland, Cincinnati or Columbus.
When a presidential candidate campaigns in the Youngstown area, they also get exposure in West Central Pennsylvania. A stop in the Mahoning Valley gets coverage from TV and newspapers on the PA side. Electoral votes in two states total 38 (Ohio 18 and PA 20).
New York and California generally vote Democrat so neither party spends much there. If the GOP ran Hitler, many smaller western and southern states would still vote Republican. Only Florida, as a battleground state, rivals Ohio and PA combined.
Cleveland beat out Dallas as the final choice for the GOP convention. Texas will continue to vote Republican, at least until immigration opens up. By comparison, in 2004 Ohio handed Republican George W. Bush the oval office in a tight race. In 2012, President Obama defeated GOPer Mitt Romney in the Buckeye state by three percentage points.
Pennsylvania has been kinder to Democrat aspirants for the presidency. Because of mid-term elections, however, the Republicans continue to think they have a shot here. The GOP holds a lock on state government and members of their party hold 13 of 18 Congressional seats.
This year’s Democrat candidate for governor, Tom Wolf, can change this. He has formed a political action committee that will simultaneously fuel his campaign while assisting in winning lawmaker elections.
Does that mean West Central PA will get more attention in this year’s general election? Maybe, but not much.
Voter concentration and growth dictates where campaign dollars and time are spent. In Southeastern PA modern Republicans and Philly liberals often agree. When former Democrat Gov. Ed Rendell first ran successfully in 2002 he believed he had to do well in 11 counties, nearly all in the Southeast. When he ran for re-election in 2006, Rendell noted the election could now be won with large margins in just eight, all in that corner.
A quarter century ago Democrat-organized labor strongholds in Cambria, Westmoreland, Beaver, Erie and even Lawrence and Mercer Counties kept these areas in play in governor races. Today, even though Democrats continue to hold registration majorities, the voter slant is conservative. Woe to any Democrat campaigning in these areas who leans pro-choice. He/she also must support fifty guns in every household, purchased from mustachioed Joe with serial numbers filed off.
Unions have lost members and those remaining seldom reflect liberal trends.
Republicans do need to know that Clevelanders are very thin-skinned. Earlier this summer a concertgoer in Cleveland was found dead in a dumpster. Colleague Bill Allen, publisher of the promising MercerCountyFreePress.com, noted he was surprised to learn Cleveland had dumpsters. The comment drew 36 immediate “dislikes” to his Facebook page.
Bottom Line: The last time Republicans held their convention in Ohio was in 1936. The GOP nominated Alf Landon, born in West Middlesex PA, who rose to governor of Kansas. During the campaign a Landon rally held in West Middlesex attracted a crowd of 100,000. Incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt scored a 523-8 electoral vote victory, the most lopsided in history. Landon won Maine and Vermont.
