EDITOR: This was a letter to the publisher, published by permission.
By Kevin Zeese
I think Chuck Schumer (now your senator!) is right that there is going to be a golden age for the Democratic Party coming up and the Republican Party will continue to shrink. See http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/chuck-schumer-interview-226385.
Clinton will defeat Trump in an electoral college landslide, maybe even a popular vote landslide. The Republican Party is already down to 21% of Americans saying they are Republicans. After Trump it will continue to shrink and then the divide in the party will turn into an internal civil war. It could get so bad that the party splits in two, but it will try to hold together in a fragile hate-each-other two wings. The neocons, who brought us the Bush wars, will try to make a comeback. They have the money players in the party, mostly, so they will probably dominate, but many of the neocons are switching to Hillary because her hawkish ideology is the same as their war-militarism approach to the world. Whether Hillary can keep them from returning to the Repubs will be interesting to watch. They may see being on the inside with Hillary is better than being in a civil war with crazy Republican extremists who can’t get elected.
In addition to the Republican divide, the demographics of the nation are going to favor the Dems more every election cycle. This was becoming evident in the two Obama elections. The Dems are beginning to cement the Latino vote, which was up for grabs when George W. ran, but under Obama and now in this election (mainly thanks to Trumps anti-immigrant views) they will become solidly Democrat. If Clinton can legalize current immigrants and come up with a fair immigration policy, the Latinon community will become even more of a part of the Dem base.
Of course, Hillary will solidify women voters as well, especially suburban women, who Bill Clinton and Obama pulled more solidly to the Dems, but as the first woman president Hillary will solidify. The Dem base of woman-Latinos-blacks (along with what little is left of unions) will be a solid foundation to win many elections.
There are big challenges to this Dem scenario. The Dems will take the senate majority back but it will be a bare majority so a lot of Dems will be frustrated with how little they do. The backlash against the president in the mid-term elections will compound Dem congressional problems. Already the Dems have 25 seats in the senate to defend — half of their senate seats — while Repubs have only eight to defend. Four of the Dem seats are in red states Obama lost twice, one is in Indiana which Obama lost once.
The key, and I think Hillary and Schumer might be up to the task, is coming up with an agenda that is progressive enough to satisfy the left of the party (which is going to be making demands) and has broad enough support to protect those at-risk senators.
If Hillary serves two terms she will appoint three, maybe four, Supreme Court justices. I don’t expect great justices from her — probably corporate lawyers and prosecutors who favor executive power for the president and corporate power on government law and regulation and expanded police and security state powers — but definitely not right wingers like Scalia or Thomas.
I am not a Democrat or a Clinton fan. Her record is one of Wall Street, Walmart, global corporate dominated trade, militarism and war. That is pretty much the opposite of my views which prefer diminishing the power of big business, especially when it comes to Wall Street and global trade, increasing the power of the people and greatly diminishing US militarism and ending US empire. So, I am not cheerleading Democratic dominance, but am pleased to see Republicans diminish.
There will also be a rising independent left in the US. This is something very under-reported in the coverage of the Philadelphia convention. There were a lot of meetings around the convention of thousands of people who are center-left (I consider Hillary center-right) to socialists. There were protests inside and outside the convention every day (under-reported) and Hillary dodged some very embarrassing protests during her acceptance speech because of very effective security in the convention hall. But, people are planning more than protest and movement building – which will both increase under Hillary – they are planning electoral efforts. There may finally be some unity on the left in elections, which could become very important in 2020 and beyond. This will be an important balance to Hillary’s (and the Dems) corporate-militarism. They need to feel pressure from progressives or they will become extreme on corporate and military power.
One big cloud that is seeming almost inevitable, is a major war involving Russia and China. I don’t know if it will be a direct conflict or pawn conflicts involving various nations fronting for Russia, China and the US. The US is setting up for a direct conflict with NATO troops surrounding Russia’s western and southern borders, and with the Asian Pivot along China’s waterways. as well as lots of new military agreements with nations and major weapons investments and sales to allies. And, smaller conflicts between the US and China are developing in Africa. Hillary has a history of being a trigger happy leader so the odds increase with her as president, but this may already be the decision of the foreign policy establishment. For economic reasons and to ensure US hegemony they may see war as an essential element. I hate to be so pessimistic on this but when I look at where troops are moving, the over-the-top propaganda against Russia (especially), the military alliances the US has recently put in place, the amount of money being spent to upgrade nuclear weapons, the record-setting arms sales and the history of the US, it just seems inevitable.
War, will also solidify the Democratic Party’s “golden era.” The neocons will stay in the Dem Party, the propaganda will be how the US cannot change presidents in war time, more Dems will be elected to Congress to support the strong leader, Hillary Clinton, dissent at home will be discouraged, the Republican Party will continue to shrink and the development of a progressive alternative to the Dems will become more difficult.
I did not expect to end on such a dismal note of war being the answer to ensure Democratic dominance, but that is where thinking out loud about these issues led. But, after the two conventions, things are looking very good for the Dems in 2016. I don’t seem much to stop them — except themselves.
KZ
