Fed doubts big US  jobless falls will last

FINANCIAL TIMES:  …The speech marked the first time Mr Bernanke had given his analysis of the rapid fall in the unemployment rate from 9.1 to 8.3 per cent over the past six months. He said it may reflect a one-off bounce back from big job cuts in 2008 and 2009.

“To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will probably require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies,” Mr Bernanke told a National Association of Business Economists conference in Arlington, Virginia.

As long as people have not quit the labour market permanently and the decline in the unemployment rate is a one-off, the Fed has good reasons to continue with easy policy. But Mr Bernanke offered no hint of further quantitative easing, or QE3. He talked about continued and not additional monetary stimulus…  (more)

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