Does Putin plan to invade Ukraine?

By Slava Tsukerman

This week Russian media was sporting titles like: “Russia is on the brink of a major war”. Reading Russian publications one certainly could come to the conclusion that the world is really facing possibility of an immediate start of the World War III.

There were many reasons for such media outburst, among them: Russian FSB reports of the arrest of a group of Ukrainian “saboteurs”, allegedly attempting terrorist attacks in Crimea; increase of fights in Donbas; concentration of Russian army in Crimea and near the Ukrainian border and responding move of Ukrainian military to the border with Crimea.

The New York Times presented very sufficient coverage of the events.

What I’d like to add to this coverage is some material illustrating how this news was commented in Russia.

It was widely publicized, that Prime Minister Medvedev, stated that “Ukrainian government instigated a terror tactic”, in spite of the fact that Ukrainian government completely denied any connection to the events in Crimea.

President Putin said: “This attempt to provoke a wave of violence and provoke conflict is nothing but a desire of those who seized power in Kiev to divert public attention from the economic situation in the country, desire to continue holding power, and robbing their own people”.

Official Russian state controlled TV reported mostly along these lines. Some popular mass media personalities presented the event as an attempt of the US to start a war against Russia.

Below you’ll find excerpts from the very typical interview given to the Radio “Echo of Moscow” by Sergei Markov, known to Russians as one of the top political specialists on the US.

Sergei Markov is a Russian political scientist, journalist and social activist, a Doctor of Political Science, Assistant Professor of Public Policy department of Faculty of Philosophy at Moscow State University, professor of the Faculty of Political Science at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), and director of the Institute of Political Studies.

He was also a member of the Presidential Commission of the Russian Federation to Counter Attempts to Falsify History to the Detriment of Russia’s Interests, which existed between 2009 and 2012. And he is the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Public Forum on International Affairs.

Markov serves as co-Chairman of the National Strategic Council of Russia and is a member of the Presidential Council for Facilitating the Development of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights of the Russian Federation. In 2007  he was elected to the State Duma, representing the ruling United Russia Party.

Here are the excerpts from his interview:

Interviewer: My first question is: who, do you think, benefits from the aggravation of relations between Russia and Ukraine?

Markov: Such aggravation is the most profitable to Hillary Clinton.

Interviewer: Why?

Markov: Because Hillary Clinton has repeatedly acted with sharp, hard, aggressive statements against Putin and Russia. Donald Trump, on the contrary, spoke with conciliatory statements with respect to, again, Russia and Putin. So if there happens a Russian-Ukrainian War, it would trigger a colossal anti-Russian information storm. And given that most of the American media is closely tied with Hillary Clinton, who represents the American establishment, this war of information would help Hillary to beat Donald Trump. This is the classic political technology.

The same technology was used in August 2008 by Vice President Dick Cheney.

Back then he was connected to the election headquarters of the Republican candidate John McCain, who opposed the then friendly to Russia Barack Obama.

Dick Cheney literally forced Saakashvili to start the war against Russia in South Ossetia. Saakashvili did not really wanted this war… At the meeting of the Security Council of Georgia, I think, somewhere in the period of 6-7 July 2008, all the Georgian generals spoke out against the war. But then Condoleezza Rice came there and she demanded Saakashvili to go to war, and they began their provocation.

Interviewer: And why do you think, this could not happen without the participation of a third force? Why do you think, for example, that the sabotage in Crimea was created by Ukraine itself?

Markov: Such thing as independent Ukrainian government does not exist. Look, it is known that General Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is subordinated to the National Security Agency of the US Department of Defense.

Intelligence Service of Ukraine works under supervision of the US Central Intelligence Agency. Accordingly, well, all the Ukrainian governmental units, so to speak, have their own chiefs from the United States. Therefore, nothing happens over there without the knowledge of the Americans.

Now we know that Ukraine is moving military equipment in the direction to the border, right? Apparently…

Interviewer: Well, Russia is also tossing its forces to the north of Crimea. To strengthen the border.

Markov: No, not Russia!… Not strengthening, not agressive!

Dear friends, you should understand: they are preparing a small war! This small war is to grow in the worst variant of a nuclear war, as a result of which you will all perish! Don’t you understand that? That gang of adventurers ventured just such a provocation!

While the majority of official Russian media shares Markov’s point of view, Russian anti-Putin Internet spreads information presenting opposite position.

Many websites reposted the publication of a resident of Yekaterinburg Yuri Izotov, known as an anti-Putin political activist. Isotov reported that he learned from his anonymous friend about the unprecedented growth of activity in the 76th Pskov Russian Army Division. He reports that the locals do not exclude possibility that Kremlin is seriously preparing for armed escalation. The city is full of armed soldiers.

The Pskov source said to Izotov: “A lot of military equipment is driven from the warehouses of the region, the military vehicles are seen by many on the roads. And most importantly, solders of the accompanying the equipment platoons walk around with automatic rifles set up for shooting. This I have seen for the last time in 1993.”

Izotov wrote on the Internet that by his opinion it is time to start anti-war actions in Russia, in order not to get into World War III.

Here is  from another publication entitled “If tomorrow the war starts” made by

Viktor Davydov in ehorussia.com on August 10:

 “To those who think that everything is bad, and life is a bad news, I can recommend to read Ukrainian news from Donbas. After that you will know what is good, what is bad and what is the horror.

“Fifty to seventy attacks from the Russian side are happening there every day. They are firing heavy mortars, artillery and Grads. Several people reported killed every day. Ukrainian military though believe that not all the losses are reported. It is clear to everyone what all that means. That means war. The war is inevitable.”

Victor Davidov and many other commentators of the latest events believe that Putin is returning now to the original plan, made before annexation of Crimea. The purpose of the plan was the creation of Novorossia (New Russia), a colonial state, which should include the entire left-bank Ukraine, with the Odessa, Mykolayiv and Kherson regions. This territory contains two-thirds of Ukraine’s economy, more than half of its population, and access to the sea and to Crimea, urgently needed by Putin. Without this territory Ukraine will become a third-rate European country, like Slovakia. Ukraine will lose almost all its military industry and will become a helpless victim.

Victor Davidov writes:

“Never since 1945, did the Russian Empire get such a big part of a territory by the only kind of activity in which it could succeed – robbery. Political dividends from such export of the ‘Russian world’ is also an all-time high: in the minds of Russian people Putin will be immediately lifted to the rate equal to Stalin’s.”

Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza wrote on August 12:

“RUSSIA HAVE CALLED UKRAINE ENEMY AND IS PREPARING FOR THE BIG WAR.”

“Russia does not rule out a major war. Ukraine is becoming its strategic enemy. This is openly stated in the official bulletin ‘Independent Military Review’, which is read by all regiments of the Russian army.

Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Dmitry Bulgakov informed the Polish journalists that Russia’s armed forces are going to run about four thousand maneuvers before the end of this year.”

Russian blogger Alexander Sotnik published on the Internet his video, where he asked Muscovites in the streets about their opinion about the last Crimean events. Most of respondents were avoiding straight answers, being obviously afraid to tell what they think. Nevertheless none of the respondents trusted FSB report that Ukraine send the “saboteurs” to Crimea and most respondents didn’t believe that the war with Ukraine is going to start.

Most of commentators on the Russian Internet also don’t believe that Putin really means to start a war. They think that his actions have just political reasons.

A journalist Alexander Sotnik wrote in the website Glavpost.com:

“It is disturbing that Putin in his speech actually forestalled opponents by adopting the arguments that Ukraine uses tension to ‘divert attention of the citizens from the state of affairs in the economy.’ In fact, it’s exactly the best reason for Putin to start a war. The economic collapse, to which Kremlin moves with suicidal gait, can be explained by such war. On the other hand, does Putin have enough money for such a war, and how the West will react, if there is a full-scale invasion? Is Putin ready to make such a step? After all, if he will make it, such aggression may become suicidal for him and his regime. 

“Today’s Russia is weak, hurt and very angry.

 “Next month will show whether Putin will decide to invade Ukraine or not.

No one knows what kind of explosive broth is cooking in his head. And it is very unfortunate that the international community once again, as in the 30s of the last century, is still half-heartedly and cowardly allowing an obvious thug to blackmail them. They are facing the insane, hating the world aggressor with uncertainty and fear.”