By Kevin Zwick
Staff Reporter
Capitolwire
HARRISBURG (Sept. 9) – The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is tight and could go down to the wire, according to pollsters at Quinnipiac University.
The latest poll shows Republican U. S. Sen. Pat Toomey edging Democrat Katie McGinty 46-45 percent. McGinty lead Toomey 47-44 percent in last month’s poll.
“High drama in too-close-to-call Pennsylvania as Katie McGinty goes toe to toe with Sen. Pat Toomey in each passing survey,” said Tim Malloy, assistant polling director. “The tightest of the key Senate races has seen a McGinty rise from near obscurity to a contender the GOP is very worried about.”
The poll says 7 percent of those surveyed don’t know for whom they’d vote.
The poll, taken Aug. 29 through Sept. 7 on land lines and cell phones, surveyed 778 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll sample of likely voters is 35 percent Republican, 36 percent Democrat, 24 percent independent, and 5 percent other (The sample includes slightly more Republicans and fewer Democrats than the August poll).
Toomey, a first-term incumbent from the Lehigh Valley, leads 53–36 percent among men and 52–42 percent among white voters. McGinty, from Chester County, leads 53–40 percent among women and 61–26 percent among non-white voters.
Both lost some support from their party but appeared to have picked up supporters from the opposite column. McGinty is favored 82–13 percent among Democrats – a drop from 85 percent last month. Toomey is favored 83–11 percent among Republicans – a drop of 2 percentage points. Toomey picked up 5 percentage points among Democrats, and McGinty added 4 percentage points among Republican supporters.
Independents are split with 46 percent supporting McGinty and 42 percent backing Toomey, almost a reversal from August.
While McGinty performed poorly in her first foray into elected office, ending up in the single digits when she ran for governor in 2014, the Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2011.
National Democrats see Pennsylvania as key to regaining majority control of the U.S. Senate.
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