By Dick Miller
WE.CONNECT.DOTS: The New York Times yesterday reported former Big Apple Mayor Michael Bloomberg is looking at an independent bid for President of the United States.
The candidacy portends a seismic shift in the political processes and could even bring about changes in the way we govern.
Bloomberg, long a Democrat, then elected two terms as a Republican to Mayor of the New York and finally a third term as an independent, retired last year. A self-made, successful business man, Bloomberg, 73, paid for all three campaigns. If elected POTUS, he would be the first Jew to occupy the White House. He is also divorced.
Advisors close to Bloomberg say he will commit $1 billion of his own money to the campaign. After that he would still be one of America’s richest people with over $30 billion net worth.
With Bloomberg in the race, the 2016 campaign would be the most expensive in world history. Because of his strong support of gun control, the National Rifle Association would be expected to devote a record amount of money to defeat him.
Bloomberg has set himself on a very narrow path to the White House. If Donald Trump or Ted Cruz are likely to be nominated by the Republicans, and Hillary Clinton is overtaken by Sen. Bernie Saunders, a Bloomberg candidacy is certain.
If Clinton can continue to fend off Saunders, Bloomberg would not likely run. He believes he would cut into her vote and hand victory to the Republicans. That Bloomberg is even considering a run is evidence of a growing concern that Clinton is headed for a repeat of 2008.
In that campaign she began as the front runner only to fall to Barack Obama in the late stage primaries. The wife of former President Bill Clinton, she appears to be “dialing” her campaign only as far left as necessary to repel Saunders and then will race back to the center after she is nominated.
Despite this lack of conviction, Clinton remains the electable choice to achieve a certain amount of social progress. Bloomberg believes Saunders cannot get elected in the fall.
Clinton’s defense of Wall Street and less than qualified support of universal health care bothers Saunders’ voters the most. They also do not trust her husband’s affection for job-crushing trade treaties.
Clinton remains, however, the most electable candidate with any social agenda. This is why Bloomberg needs to hold off a final decision until after Super Tuesday’s primaries in March.
Despite Bloomberg’s attributes, his candidacy opens a new frontier in presidential campaigns.
Party politics were more important in the days when parties wielded more power, before well-heeled special interests, before the Internet, before gerrymandering, before obstructionist legislating.
Bloomberg’s final consideration is the difficulty for an independent candidate to get a majority of the electoral votes to capture the White House. As the Wall Street Journal points out, the last strong third party candidate, Ross Perot, got 19 percent of the popular vote in 1992, but not a single electoral vote.
Bottom Line: Bloomberg becomes a major factor in this year’s presidential race because he is experienced at campaigning and governing, is self-made rich and highly regarded. More has to happen, however, before he becomes a game-changer.
